Control the forecast, control the market.
As drought tightens its grip, private forecasting, water-risk modeling and strategic scarcity begin to move together. The team enters a case where information control is almost as dangerous as the weather itself.
Drought pressure, predictive markets, strategic messaging. Drought creates real pressure; a forecast is not proof that somebody made it happen. The tension lies in who controls models, contracts and decisions made under uncertainty, and how scarcity can be exploited without controlling the weather.
Turns adaptation economics into open conflict over data and trust.
Scarcity is monetized long before relief reaches the people who need it.
Get to know the recurring investigators, or explore the other cases in reading order.
